2024: A Rollercoaster Year for Cannabis in Thailand
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #102
Sawadee Everyone,
It’s been a while since my last newsletter, so let’s see if I still remember how to do this.
To be honest, there hasn’t been a ton to write about recently. News on the new cannabis bill has been as rare as a perfectly rolled joint. Ever since Anutin and Pheu Thai agreed to let him take the wheel on drafting the bill, updates have been… let’s say, “subtle.”
In theory, the new law was supposed to land before the end of 2024 under PM Srettha’s government. But with Srettha unceremoniously ousted, cannabis seems to have fallen off the political radar—for now. And you know what? That might actually be a good thing.
So, before we dive into what’s next, let’s take a moment to look back at the year that was and peek ahead at 2025.
2024: A Wild Ride for Thai Cannabis
If 2024 were a strain, it’d be called “Uncertainty OG.” From shifting political winds to growing pains in the industry, this year felt like one long balancing act—opportunity versus responsibility, hope versus reality. But amidst all the chaos, there’s a sense that the foundation for something bigger is starting to solidify.
Shifting Gears on Policy
The year kicked off with whispers of re-criminalization as PM Srettha raised concerns about recreational cannabis use. Advocates and industry leaders weren’t having it, though. They pushed back hard, and soon the focus shifted toward regulation instead of prohibition.
Anutin’s draft bill emphasizes medical use while aiming to bring some order to the current free-for-all. Recreational use? Still a gray area, as always. (Let’s not even get into how “recreational” is defined—it’s like arguing about what counts as “spicy” in Thai food.)
The bottom line? Thailand seems to be leaning toward rules that are stricter but still allow the industry to thrive in some capacity.
Debates and Decisions
Cannabis sparked some of the year’s fiercest debates, with the Pheu Thai Party advocating for tighter controls and Bhumjaithai doubling down on cannabis’ economic and medical potential. Meanwhile, pro-cannabis groups took to the streets, arguing that weed is less harmful than booze or cigarettes. Their message? Evidence-based policy > fear-driven bans.
On the ground, dispensary owners and growers scrambled to adapt. Some closed shop; others doubled down. Public polling revealed a mixed bag of opinions: many Thais support regulated medical cannabis but remain skeptical about recreational use. The message was clear—people want thoughtful regulation, not chaos.
If anything, the positive message to take away from the Srettha-Anutin battle in 2024 was that even people/groups that weren’t pro-cannabis and felt like cannabis had gone too far, weren’t necessarily pushing to end access to cannabis. Many saw the financial impact on businesses, some looked at how a u-turn around look to foreign investors, and some just felt like there was a middle-path between no laws and total prohibition.
The Industry: Growing Pains
Despite the uncertainty, the cannabis industry in Thailand continued to grow. Dispensaries flourished, with some even projecting the market to hit $1.2 billion by 2025. Big brands like DOPE entered the scene, and medical cannabis programs expanded to rural areas.
But it wasn’t all sunshine and sativa. Fraudulent schemes popped up, idiots got busted doing idiotic things while high, and small growers felt the squeeze of falling prices and rising competition. The market is maturing, but not everyone is making the cut.
On the bright side, Thailand earned a major badge of honor with Asia’s first GACP-certified cannabis farm. Progress may be slow, but it’s happening.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As we step into 2025, the cannabis landscape is gearing up for what I like to call “The Big Reset.” The new laws (whenever they drop) will likely weed out underperforming businesses, leaving room for serious players to dominate. Expect the market to split into “Haves” and “Have-Nots,” with well-funded dispensaries expanding and smaller ones quietly bowing out or finding a niche bigger shops neglect.
Adding to the pressure, June 9, 2025, marks three years since legalization. Many leases are up for renewal (as are cannabis licenses), and with shrinking profit margins, the industry is bracing for some tough calls. Small growers are getting hammered, and industrial-scale operations are stepping in to fill the gap.
But wait, that’s not doom and gloom. Far from it. That’s just what happens in new markets. There’s a sudden gold rush and then margins tighten and there’s consolidation leaving fewer businesses but those businesses tend to be financially healthier and in it for the long haul.
When the new laws take effect, expect a few high-profile police raids—probably starting with some mom-and-pop shops in the provinces before moving on to bigger targets. It’ll be a PR spectacle to show the government means business, but as with most crackdowns in Thailand, it’ll likely fade into the background soon after.
Political Wild Cards
And let’s not forget the political drama. Thaksin Shinawatra looms large, with whispers of a coup growing louder by the day. PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is already being called “Paetongphoey” (a jab at her reliance on scripted iPad statements), and it’s clear many in the media believe that she’s PM in name only.
If a no-confidence vote or a coup shakes up the government, Anutin and Bhumjaithai could find themselves back in the driver’s seat. What happens next? Your guess is as good as mine, but cannabis might not be the top priority in 2025’s political theater.
And, again, that’s a good thing. The more normalized cannabis becomes and the less people freak out, the more we move towards societal acceptance.
The Road Ahead
The days of unregulated growth are ending, and the industry is entering a phase of consolidation and maturity. Some dispensaries will thrive; others will fade away. Wholesale prices may drop further, but profit margins are already razor-thin so not all of those price drops will filter down to consumers.
Still, with clearer laws, expanded medical programs, and a market poised for international recognition, 2025 could be a turning point. Actually, I think 2025 will likely end up more as a transitionary year. People need time to digest what the new laws mean for profitability and realign their businesses. That means 2026 is more likely to be the year that we see the results of those realignments.
So, that’s the state of things. Here’s to a greener, hopefully calmer, 2025. As always, I could be wrong—but hey, it wouldn’t be the first time. 😉
Stay lifted and enlightened,
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