A Cooling Off Period?
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #95
Sawadee Everyone,
This week, the prime minister stepped back from the spotlight on the cannabis recriminalization debate to go promote Thai fashion in Milan, handing the issue over to Minister of Public Health, Somsak.
Which is the appropriate thing to do since Thailand, last time I checked, is still a democracy and not a dictatorship where one man can just unilaterally decree laws. Plus, it would be nice to see models walking down Paris and Milan runways wearing elephant pants and Chang tank tops.
Since Srettha’s infamous anti-cannabis interview the media has shifted their focus towards finding balanced regulations, rather than extreme measures. For instance, the Bangkok Post published an op-ed pointing out that making it illegal, and all of the economic harm it would cause, doesn’t make sense given that they haven’t tried regulation yet.
However, it remains uncertain whether the prime minister might still push for a complete cannabis ban. For now, he seems to be letting things cool down, possibly recognizing he may have overreached.
But it also may be because he has bigger fish to fry and his own job to worry about.
Recently, forty senators requested the Constitutional Court to examine if Srettha violated the law by appointing Pichit Chuenban as office minister. Pichit, a lawyer involved in a 2008 bribery scandal involving Thaksin, could potentially lead to Srettha’s impeachment if the court finds Pichit was morally unqualified for the position and Srettha knowingly put him up for the office anyway. The Bangkok Post also reported that Srettha could be suspended as PM while the court considers the case.
Additionally, the government's attempt to address the rice issue, perceived as an effort to whitewash Yingluck Shinawatra's legacy, backfired, leading to public ridicule.
The recent cabinet reshuffle has also added to the turmoil. It has created the appearance of chaos within Srettha’s office and the Pheu Thai Party. The reshuffle displeased those who lost their positions, such as former agriculture minister Chaiya Promma and Dr. Cholnan, former Minister of Public Health. Chaiya publicly criticized the party and has been making sounds like he may defect while Cholnan’s supporters are openly accusing the party of stabbing Cholnan in the back.
Foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara resigned in protest, and Krisada Chinavicharana of UTN quit after his position was reworked.
Moreover, Anutin Charnvirakul, Minister of the Interior, publicly criticized Pheu Thai, accusing them of betraying his party, Bhumjaithai, over the cannabis issue.
But who is calling the shots at Pheu Thai?
Thaksin Shinawatra, seen by many within and outside of the party as the leader of Pheu Thai, complicates matters.
Despite his significant influence, he remains a polarizing figure.
Not only do many Thais not believe that he was too sick to serve his jail sentence in prison, but his attempt to negotiate the conflict happening in Myanmar only to be shunned by the Myanmar junta has also drawn considerable backlash.
It is a much different world than when Thaksin and Yingluck each went into exile. Thaksin doesn’t draw the same kind of support he once did.
Many of the recent blunders on the part of Pheu Thai would not have received the same kind of backlash that they’re generating today. Thaksin was wildly popular back then and few questioned him. Now, a large chunk of voters were too young to know who he even is.
And Pheu Thai’s disappointing performance in the last election, where they placed second behind Move Forward, definitely suggests changing dynamics in Thailand’s politics.
Which puts Srettha in a very unenviable position. If Srettha follows Thaksin’s orders and they are unpopular with Thais or they fail miserably, Thaksin can easily deflect blame and point at Srettha who is the PM. If Srettha ignores Thaksin’s orders the party is likely to remain loyal to Thaksin and oust Srettha.
So what does this have to do with cannabis?
To be honest, I’m not sure yet.
Surely, the architect of Thailand’s drug war, Thaksin, isn’t going to back off even if Srettha is replaced, impeached, or decides to quit and become a fashion designer. As long as a Pheu Thai PM is in office, they’ll likely keep up the drug war rhetoric.
The big question is what does Thaksin/Pheu Thai want and what are they willing to pay to obtain it.
Would they be willing to back off on cannabis in exchange for the wallet scheme? Are they willing to trade weed to get Yingluck back in the country?
Speculating about what they want is easy, determining how badly they want any particular thing is difficult.
For instance, Pheu Thai may be taking such a hardline position, not because they believe in the drug war, but because they want to use it as a bigger bargaining chip with Bhumjaithai. If Pheu Thai supported cannabis or only wanted to enact some minor commonsense regulations, Bhumjaithai would have little incentive to help Pheu Thai with some of their other goals.
I don’t mention this to say, “Yay, let’s pin our hopes on Pheu Thai collapsing or Bhumjaithai making a deal with Pheu Thai for weed.” I point it out simply to demonstrate how all of these pieces are connected.
You can’t just look at any one person or thing trying to figure out where cannabis legalization will end up. Cannabis is just one piece.
And unfortunately, we’re all just pawns in this game.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
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