Thaksin Under Fire
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #99
Sawadee Everyone,
Things have gone a little quiet in cannabis-land this week.
The main news of interest in terms of where things are headed with cannabis is the backlash Thaksin has received recently. I don’t know if Pheu Thai is trying to create the impression that the new prime minister Ung-Ing is her own woman, Thaksin has gone off the deep end, or some combination of both.
On Thursday of this week former prime minister and ex-convict Thaksin gave a speech where he sounded a lot like a prime minister talking about programs the government planned to roll out and what the government’s focus was.
That’s all well and good except for his daughter is the actual prime minister, not him.
Surprisingly (sarcasm intended) many Thais think that Thaksin is running the government using his daughter as a proxy as he is prohibited from participating in the government.
I guess if you were in Thailand under Thaksin and then after Thaksin and then when Yingluck was PM, you kind of know that Thaksin, despite being one hell of a politician, seemingly has impulse control issues and his governments or those of fellow Shinawatra’s tend to end in a coup as he likes to push things to the brink to see if the other side will blink. So far, he’s 0-2 on that and everything points to him extending that record to 0-3 if he continues down this road.
And I say that with all due respect. The guy politicians. He’s proposed and implemented many popular programs in Thailand that are still around today like the current universal healthcare scheme. At one time his party was crushing it with 60% of the popular vote.
But, at the moment, the progressive, democracy seeking Thais seem to favor People’s Party (the party formerly known as Move Forward). The party has captured the imagination and passion of the younger generations who never knew Thaksin or only got a small sample of Shinawatra politics.
That’s very problematic to Pheu Thai because Thaksin is 75 years old so he’s unlikely to vibe with the younger generations and leaves him only a base of supporters that are aging out and dying.
And in a poll reported on yesterday, 37.79% of Thais said Thaksin should have no role in the government and should not try to run it from behind the scenes but can offer general advice to Ung Ing. 26.95% said Thaksin should have no role in the government, nor run things from behind the scenes, nor should he be giving any advice to Ung Ing.
That’s 64.74% that want Thaksin out of Thai politics.
And before they published the results of this poll, this entire weekend has been full of stories of people slamming Thaksin for his speech on Thursday.
Facing backlash over Thaksin’s speech, Ung Ing declared, "I insist he is not trying to dominate. I can think for myself.”
Meanwhile Thaksin’s former ally, former Red Shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan, pointedly asked, "Should we really allow a person convicted of corruption to gain power over the state?"
Legal scholar Jade Donavanik also had sharp words, "In particular, Ms Paetongtarn could be in trouble if Pheu Thai, of which she is the leader, allows itself to be controlled and influenced by Thaksin.”
And it’s not like Ung Ing doesn’t have her own problems to contend with. She’s accused of being knee deep in the Alpine Golf Club scandal which will likely start dominating the news as the case progresses.
To add a little cherry on top of all of this, if it is deemed that Thakin is exercising too much control over the Pheu Thai Party, the entire party can be dissolved under the Political Parties Act which prohibits outside influence over a political party.
It appears that Thaksin is being boxed in by his enemies. Worse, they’re setting out traps and inviting him to test their resolve.
The dismissal of Srettha was seen by most political analysts as a warning to Thaksin. Indicting Thaksin on lèse-majesté charges and then pushing out the decision was further meant to send the message that Thaksin is on a short leash and should mind his behavior.
The warnings he’s received across the political spectrum this weekend seem to indicate that people want to remind Thaksin that his daughter is now fair game and that his actions could bring her down as well.
In fact, a petition to the Election Commission has already asked for Pheu Thai Party to be dissolved due to Thaksin exerting influence over the party.
I mentioned in a previous newsletter that Thaksin had make a public remark to the effect that he would tell Srettha to set up a meeting that seemed awfully like a government level meeting.
Thaksin also said he had talked to Mr Srettha and told him to call a meeting of economic ministers as soon as he returns to Thailand from his overseas trips. The meeting will take place on Monday.
Kind of hard to claim you’re not influencing the current government when you tell the press you’re ordering the prime minister to set up meetings with the economic ministers.
And that is where this complaint will come down to. Technically the law says “control, dominate or instruct.” not simply “influence” the party. That is a much higher burden of proof but Thaksin does have a way of offering his opponents exactly the proof they need.
Given what we’ve seen only since Thaksin has returned to Thailand, it does appear Thaksin is on a collision course with the elites who hold all of the levers of government they need in order to remove him and his daughter from any sort of role in running the country.
Of course, since every week someone asks on the subreddit, “how does this apply to cannabis?” I can only say that should Ung Ing be unable to complete her tenure as prime minister the next most likely candidate at the moment is pro-cannabis Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin.
Pheu Thai is sort of out of prime minister candidates. Technically they have one left but he was nominated and then had the nomination retracted due to some prior issues which Pheu Thai felt might disqualify him from the prime minister spot.
That means that Pheu Thai put up three prime minister candidates during the elections, Srettha who has been removed and ineligible to run again, Ung Ing who may or may not be removed, and Chaikasem who Pheu Thai withdrew from nomination.
They could re-run Chaikasem which would not look good because they already admitted he might be disqualified and they just had a prime minister who was removed from office for nominating someone to office who was disqualified.
As far as the cannabis community is concerned, it would appear at first glance that the most desirable outcome is for Thaksin to go too far and have Ung Ing removed from office or have the entire Pheu Thai Party dissolved which would create a scramble to pick a new PM which Anutin has a decent chance of winning.
Second best outcome would be that Thaksin and Anutin have decided to bury the hatchet (for now) and Thaksin and Ung Ing sort of forget about cannabis for awhile and allow Anutin to pass a cannabis bill.
At the moment it looks like the second outcome is the one we currently have developing.
And, I’m not totally convinced that we want the first outcome. While Anutin would be the favorite to take the helm of the country, that doesn’t mean he would win. And if he loses, whoever does become PM could be a total wildcard and we could be right back at a prime minister demanding that cannabis be made illegal again.
If you’re not the gambling type, Thaksin/Ung-Ing allowing Anutin to pass a cannabis bill is the safer bet. There are less unknowns.
Also, on a certain level, I’m not entirely convinced the cannabis movement wins much extra with Anutin in the prime minister’s seat. There’s still strong public sentiment against recreational use so he’s never going to declare weed is completely legal. We’ll still likely play the charade where the laws don’t make a strong distinction between medical and recreational and the government can claim Thailand is 100% medical only (wink-wink).
Of course, if you’ve been reading this newsletter for any amount of time, Thai politics change more often than the weather so we’ll have to keep watching to see where things are headed.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
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Great read as ever, the dissolving of Pheu Thai, weeks after MFP, the two biggest parties gone - only in Thailand....