That Escalated Quickly
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #104
Sawadee Everyone,
In case you’ve been living under a rock this past month, let me catch you up. Thailand’s politics have been in full-on chaos mode. The last 30 days have delivered more drama than a year’s worth of Thai soap operas.
Let’s start with cannabis, because of course, it’s in the crossfire. The government announced new regulations — and then promptly delayed them 30 to 60 days. Classic Thailand. Anyone familiar with how Thai governance works could see this coming a mile away. The playbook is always the same: make a grand announcement, then realize they’re utterly unprepared to follow through.
We’ve seen this before. Anutin removed cannabis from the controlled substances list months before the change went into effect, giving ministries plenty of time to prepare. They didn’t. Instead, they woke up on June 9, 2022, panicked, and scrambled to draft half-baked rules about public consumption and advertising.
Fast forward to current day. Minister Somsak drops new compliance rules on dispensaries and growers, and surprise they didn’t even have the forms ready. I spoke with three dispensary owners in Phuket this week. Not one of them has received official word about these new regulations. They’re learning about it the same way everyone else is: from the news. It reeks less of genuine public health concern and more like political payback, coming just days after Bhumjaithai pulled its support from the ruling coalition.
But cannabis is just a sideshow. The main event is the political implosion unfolding in real time. The Shinawatra name is becoming, once again, synonymous with disaster. No Shinawatra has left office voluntarily. Thaksin? Coup. Yingluck? Coup. And now Paetongtarn stands at the edge of that same cliff.
Thaksin’s return was always going to end like this. The man has no “Sabai Sabai” setting. His political style is like a bull in a china shop. He charges ahead, leaving a trail of enemies who, in time, find common cause in bringing him down.
So, why might Pheu Thai’s days be numbered? It starts with that infamous phone call between the PM and Hun Sen. I won’t wade into the Cambodia border drama, but let’s just say it has lit a political fuse. There’s rampant speculation that Bhumjaithai played a hand in turning Hun Sen against the Shinawatras, unproven but very plausible in the eyes of many Thais.
Protests are growing, with tens of thousands marching and calling for Paetongtarn to resign. The word “coup” is creeping back into the media’s vocabulary, and protesters aren’t exactly being subtle about their openness to military intervention.
The courts will soon decide whether to investigate the PM over the phone call, and they may suspend her during that process. Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai is lining up a no-confidence vote. Pheu Thai’s fallback PM candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, is quietly testing the waters but comes with his own baggage — health concerns and ethical clouds that make him an unlikely Pheu Thai savior.
And let’s not forget Thaksin’s legal troubles. Between hospital stay scandals and possible Section 112 violations, his presence is now a liability Paetongtarn can’t survive without and can’t afford to stand by.
At this point, the outcome feels inevitable. The real question isn’t if Pheu Thai loses power. It’s how.
• A coup would hand the reins to the military.
• A court removal would force other parties to form a new coalition. If it gets to this point, it’s almost assured that MPs from all parties will start bailing on the coalition and scramble to make new deals.
• If Paetongtarn steps down voluntarily, the result would look much the same.
• A dissolved parliament and snap election would likely deliver a People’s Party landslide, bringing us right back to square one. Not that that is terribly bad. People’s Party, while opposed to recreational cannabis, seemed much more open to working with cannabis activists and the medical community to draft sensible laws.
• If coalition partners bail, Pheu Thai loses its majority and the opposition seizes control.
One way or another, the Shinawatra era looks to be drawing to a close, and this time, they won’t have anyone to blame but themselves.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
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