The PM Who Couldn't
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #98
Sawadee Everyone,
It appears we finally have some significant movement in the ongoing battle for cannabis in Thailand.
For those who missed it, the Thai courts removed Prime Minister Srettha from office. One of weed’s biggest opponents is gone from the Thai political scene.
Honestly, I can’t say that this comes as any surprise. If you were around for Thaksin’s term as prime minister or his sister’s time as prime minister you’ll likely note that Shinawatra-backed political parties have a predisposition towards artificially shortened terms in office.
That said, I was surprised that Pheu Thai decided to go with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, aka Ung Ing. In fact, Pheu Thai initially announced that they would put Chaikasem up for PM but quickly backtracked.
I saw a few news reports that mentioned that Chaikasem had some political baggage and after Srettha they wanted a PM candidate that would sail through with no obstacles. Given Ung Ing’s absolute lack of any prior political or governing experience, she was deemed to be the perfect PM candidate to lead Thailand.
I had put the odds only around 10% or 20%, but I had hoped that Chaikasem would be too old and in poor health to be considered and that everyone would scoff at Ung Ing due to her lack of experience which would mean Pheu Thai would be forced to strike some sort of deal with Anutin to retain certain cabinet positions in exchange for supporting him for PM.
Instead we’ve got Ung Ing. But for how long? Given the Shinawatra family history with the prime ministership, her completing a full term in office is far from guaranteed. In fact, many of the social media comments in English and Thai have joked that the countdown to the next coup just started.
Even the old Red Shirt warrior and former close ally of Thaksin, Jatuporn Prompan, said that Ung Ing would probably be removed from power by early next year.
He gave a list of “old wounds” that can resurface to compromise Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s legal and constitutional legitimacy. Among them is curious ownerships of the previous Alpine Golf Course, which had led to a big political scandal that blew up in many Pheu Thai faces.
Some conservative analysts or activists have said the same thing. They think Alpine can undermine Paetongtarn, with official complaints seeking to remove her certain to be launched.
But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet, what does this mean for cannabis?
Well, I have good news and bad news.
Let’s start with the bad news.
Ung Ing has not had nice things to say about cannabis in the past.
“As a mother, I do not want my children to grow up in a country where narcotics run rampant and cannabis is easily available …”
That’s was said in March 2023 and she has not said anything since then that would indicate her opinion has softened.
Now for the good news.
First off, I’m not confident that Ung Ing will be a competent enough leader to thwart someone like Anutin. Sure, she will be getting expert advice from Thaksin but look at the difficulty Srettha had and he was at least an accomplished business executive before getting into politics and had Thaksin’s advice available to him as well.
However, more importantly, I don’t see how Pheu Thai retained the PM spot without making some serious concessions. They got the coalition’s unqualified endorsement on the first round of voting which means Pheu Thai had already locked up the votes long before the votes were even cast.
Pheu Thai announced one PM candidate, Chaikasem, and then quickly retracted Chaikasem and said Ung Ing was the PM candidate.
That likely means that Pheu Thai had support for any candidate that they wanted to put forward. They could have announced a bowl of rice and the coalition partners would have voted for it.
That would seem to indicate that Pheu Thai likely had made contingency plans weeks ago in case Srettha was removed from office.
I find it difficult to believe that Thaksin and Anutin playing golf together just prior to the verdict on Srettha was a coincidence. Something was traded during that round of golf and I highly doubt it was simply old war stories or somtam recipes.
Replacing Srettha with Ung Ing allows Pheu Thai to pin the party’s failures on Srettha and come out acting like with him out of the way they can get down to delivering for the Thai people. It’s a reset, if you will.
And that’s a good thing.
All Ung Ing has to do is say nothing and allow Anutin to pass a cannabis control bill and this whole thing sort of disappears for Pheu Thai. And if people complain that it’s not enough, blame Anutin and then go full drug war mode.
Pheu Thai was taking a lot of heat for the Srettha anti-cannabis policy because, IMHO, Pheu Thai misread the polling data. Yes, most Thais are against recreational use but they aren’t looking for another drug war either. Most Thais are old enough to remember the last one.
It was also interesting to see how the media coverage changed as the actual repercussions of re-criminalizing cannabis became more clear. Even the large news organizations like the Bangkok Post were eventually writing editorials about how reversing course made no sense and that they should just regulate and tax it.
I think that’s where Pheu Thai got it wrong. I think most Thais just wanted it reigned in and Pheu Thai went scorched earth instead.
That’s why I have long held the position that Thaksin and Srettha never cared about cannabis. It was always just a bargaining chip. Their zeal to criminalize it and place harsh penalties on users didn’t match up with public sentiment.
This new situation they find themselves in allows them to take a step back, do nothing, and then take all of the credit once Anutin passes a cannabis bill and the industry is reigned in a little bit.
Bottom line is that this is a net positive for cannabis.
But the real test as to how close we are to the end of this battle will be in seeing what the new cabinet will look like.
The role Anutin ends up in will be very telling but I’m particularly interested in who is tapped to head the Ministry of Public Health.
While Anutin has been effective as Minister of the Interior which includes Thai law enforcement, using his position to fend off attempts at re-criminalization, if Pheu Thai gives a Bhumjaithai MP the Minister of Public Health spot, Pheu Thai has effectively raised the white flag on war against cannabis.
That said, I’m making no predictions of that. I’m just pointing out that once we hear what the new cabinet looks like we might be able to piece together a little more about what deals may have been made and what is likely to follow.
Regardless, even if Somsak is still in charge of the MoPH, that in itself is not a reason to immediately begin worrying. Somsak is an experienced politician and knows which way the wind is blowing. If he’s told to stand down, he’ll stand down. This was never a personal crusade for him.
While I’m generally optimistic about the future of cannabis in Thailand right now, I again want to reiterate that now is not the time to take the foot off the gas pedal for cannabis activism.
Like I said in the last newsletter, “We will always be at risk of losing cannabis again if we don’t do more to educate people and dispute anti-cannabis propaganda.”
You have to build on your gains, not rest on your laurels.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
Don’t forget that we’ve partnered with some dispensaries for exclusive deals available to members of this newsletter and the r/CannabisThailand sub on Reddit. Just type “Dank Deal” into the comments of any post and the AutoMod will send you the current discounts being offered.
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