The Real Options
r/CannabisThailand Newsletter - Issue #96
Sawadee Everyone,
My apologies for these newsletters coming out a day late the last few weeks. It seems every time I sit down to write, more news stories pop up that are related to the topic of the newsletter so I end up doing some rewrites.
Before we jump into the cannabis news, a quick update on PM Srettha’s struggle to survive his term.
The hammer dropped pretty hard on Srettha this week. The Constitutional Court did decide to take up the case as to whether or not Srettha appointing a convicted and disbarred lawyer for a ministry position was unethical. [CORRECTION: Last week I said Pichit Chuenban was convicted of trying to bribe the court. He was actually convicted of contempt of court for that incident.]
The Thai media mentioned that the vote to accept the case, even after Pichit Chuenban resigned his post, is not a good omen for the prime minister.
First off, the fact that they decided to hear the case after Pichit resigned means they think there’s enough there to continue going after Srettha for even nominating Pichit.
Second, the vote was 6 to 3 in favor of taking the case which cannot be comforting to Srettha.
Third, the court ruled 5-4 to let him stay in office which means that he came pretty close to being suspended.
The Diplomat had an excellent piece on Thaksin’s political nihilism. Despite being a very detailed article, I would speculate that in addition to the reasons cited by The Diplomat, it does appear as if Thaksin may be beginning to realize that at nearly 75, there are only so many chances he’s going to get in this lifetime so he’s willing to risk anything and everything to accomplish his objectives.
That’s especially concerning given that the last two times a Shinawatra has held office, they were removed from office in coups.
The Council on Foreign Relations had a similar article with a headline saying that Pheu Thai promised change but has instead delivered chaos, citing the government’s inability to deliver anything of substance since taking office.
And the president of the Federation of Thai Industries has noted publicly that this whole court case is causing foreign investors to become hesitant to invest in Thailand due to the unstable government.
There was a very revealing article in the press where Thaksin said he knows who is behind trying to get Srettha but claims he’s an old man and has nothing to do with politics. But, more interesting was this quote:
Thaksin also said he had talked to Mr Srettha and told him to call a meeting of economic ministers as soon as he returns to Thailand from his overseas trips. The meeting will take place on Monday.
He’s not involved in politics but he just rings up the PM and tells him what meetings to schedule and when? I’m not sure both those statements can be true.
Academics speculate that the forty senators that filed the complaint against Srettha were firing a shot across the bow aimed at Thaksin to let him know that he can still be checked if he goes too far.
The theory being that if Srettha is found guilty, they can link Pichit to Thaksin and thus request that the entire Pheu Thai Party be dissolved.
They also speculate that the senators will blink first on this particular issue (Srettha being removed as PM) simply because if they remove Pheu Thai then MFP will likely attempt to form a government which the senators find even more distasteful than having Thaksin running the show.
Speaking of Shinawatras, Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, felt it necessary to issue a statement saying that she does not feel she is ready to be prime minister at this time.
Which is sort of a head scratcher because nobody asked her to become PM.
This has led some to speculate that Thaksin pushed for Srettha to nominate Pichit knowing that it would backfire and put Srettha in the hot seat and thus clip his wings a bit.
Of course, Thaksin has denied that.
However, Srettha has one last card up his sleeve if he’s been unwittingly set up to be the fall guy, he can dissolve the House and force a new election which Pheu Thai would likely lose. In fact, polls conducted this weekend show that MFP would likely win in a landslide.
Based on these responses, combining the election of constituency and party-list MPs, the Move Forward party would win 208 seats in the House, followed by 105 for Pheu Thai, 61 for Bhumjaithai, 34 for United Thai Nation, 30 for Palang Pracharath, 22 seats for the Democrats, 10 for Chart Thai Pattana and 9 for Prachachart.
When asked who they want to be the next prime minister, the poll shows 46.9% said Pita, followed by 17.7% for General Prayut Chan-o-cha, 10.5% for Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 8.7% for Srettha Thavisin, 3.3% for Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, 1.7% for Jurin Laksanawisit of Democrat party and 0.4% for General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of Palang Pracharath party.
But this would be the nuclear option for Srettha as he would become persona non grata in Thai politics and he would be dead to Pheu Thai members.
It does go to show how vulnerable the Pheu Thai and Srettha are right now and that doesn’t take into account what other parties like Bhumjaithai or Move Forward may be planning behind the scenes.
If I’ve learned one thing from watching Thai politics is that it’s not a good idea to count someone like Anutin out. Politicians like him often play dead but that’s when they’re the most dangerous, and he’s a man that feels like Pheu Thai double-crossed him on cannabis.
Again, like I said last week, I’m not rooting for or against the PM, Pheu Thai, Thaksin, or anyone else. I’m just trying to point out the facts that often get overlooked in the media.
Thai media often reports each individual story in a vacuum devoid of obvious connections between stories. I’m just trying to connect the dots trying to determine the likely outcomes for cannabis.
Currently, the best outcomes for cannabis are:
Srettha loses the PM spot which may spook Pheu Thai into ruffling fewer feathers and they back off the harsh language on cannabis since it gets them nothing.
Pheu Thai loses control of the government which goes to Move Forward or a coalition of conservative parties and a softer bill is passed that basically just closes loopholes
Thaksin is forced to negotiate with Bhumjaithai for something he wants like getting Yingluck back, BJT staying in the coalition so as to avoid Pheu Thai losing control, the digital wallet scheme, etc.
This whole cannabis recriminalization things gets forgotten about due to other political turmoil.
The most realistic scenarios are Pheu Thai losing control of the government and Thaksin being forced to negotiate.
That is why I tend to lean into the politics as much as I do in this newsletter. The cannabis community’s best options are tied to Pheu Thai or Thaksin playing themselves into a bad political position over something not cannabis related where they either lose control or are forced to neogitate.
Now for cannabis specific news . . .
Thailand’s Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin issued a statement that only the bud and flower (you know, the good parts) of the cannabis plant would be relisted as a narcotic. Smoke all the stems and seeds you want though, I guess.
He did seem to throw the industry a small lifeline by saying that there would be a transition period but outside of that he didn’t really reveal how any of this will work.
He also said that a licensing scheme for growers and medical clinics was in the works without giving any further details of substance.
Benjamin Hart from Integrity Legal has said, given how quickly things move in Thailand, there’s probably no chance the legal status of cannabis will change in 2024 and possibly even the first quarter of 2025 if what Somsak said is accurate. That also seems to mesh with Srettha’s demand that cannabis be made illegal by April 2025.
At the moment, I would concur that that seems like the most likely outcome if things go according to the government’s plans.
I would also echo Hart’s frustration at how the Thai media reports things as if there is no political process that has to be followed.
Srettha saying he wants to ban recreational cannabis doesn’t mean that recreational cannabis will be banned. Just like him saying he’s going to give Thai people 10,000 baht didn’t magically make it happen.
There are, AFAIK, 4 or 5 alternative drafts for a cannabis policy either already submitted to parliament or pending submission. There should be a process of debate and compromise to pass a bill everyone agrees on.
The constant media reporting as if the Pheu Thai bill is the only bill is inaccurate and misleading.
It really makes me wonder if some Thai journalists have even an iota of knowledge about how their government works.
That hasn’t stopped a lot of cannabis related businesses from going up on the block to be sold. Facebook marketplace is awash in people trying to dump their dispensaries and farms.
If 2022 was the Green/Gold Rush Era, 2024 is quickly becoming the Cashout Era as everyone heads for the exits.
Lastly, I wanted to address some of the speculation about what might happen when or if all of this eventually happens.
First off, let’s assume that the possible outcomes are limited to:
Srettha / Somsak Bill
Lightly Relaxed Bill
Highly Relaxed Bill
No Bill
There are other potential outcomes but I think their odds are sufficiently low at this point as to not factor them in until or if circumstances change.
Srettha / Somsak Bill would be the worst case scenario. It would be almost everything Srettha has been demanding. Basically, anything with high THC is going to be difficult to obtain legally in Thailand.
The Lightly Relaxed Bill is the Srettha / Somsak Bill but with some token changes made to make it seem like the government is being fair but still ends up strictly limiting cannabis sales in Thailand.
The Highly Relaxed Bill leans a bit more towards what Bhumjaithai proposed in their cannabis bill but Pheu Thai will put their spin on it and claim it as their own.
No Bill is what happens if Srettha loses his job, there’s a coup, there’s too much debate and nothing gets passed, etc.
So, outside of No Bill, which would basically be the current status quo, we’ll likely end up with either Hard Medical or Soft Medical requirements as I don’t think Srettha’s version will make it through.
Hard Medical would be like it was before June 2022. There would be specific clinics, most of which are run by government hospitals, which will give out highly controlled prescriptions for cannabis therapy. Growers would only be allowed to sell to authorized processors.
Soft Medical would be like medical in the US where you go in and see a sham doctor who writes you a prescription for cannabis that you can use to purchase at a dispensary.
The options look like this:
I see a lot of people talking like Soft Medical is a guaranteed outcome. It’s not based on any information or analysis. It’s basically how people hope things will happen.
But even Soft Medical could end up being too costly and cumbersome for many dispensaries.
Realistically, in this scenario the dispensary needs the doctor more than the doctor needs the dispensary. Without a doctor you can’t sell weed but the doctor can still practice medicine without a dispensary.
What value would the dispensary provide the doctor other than a good location? Weed is easy to source.
Add to that the number of customers that will be lost if they have to jump through additional hoops. Yes, your hardcore stoner types will crawl over broken glass but what about the tourist that is walking by a shop and makes an impulse buy of a few joints?
At a minimum that impulse buy would turn into a sham medical examination and then being allowed to buy weed, which means it’s no longer an impulse purchase.
Or how many casual users will shy away when they’re asked to hand over their passport? That basically eliminates tourists from Malaysia or Singapore who may be concerned about getting drug tested when they return.
I would say that a conservative estimate is that maybe 20% of cannabis sales just disappears.
And remember, this is with Soft Medical.
Of course, I don’t want to scaremonger, Soft Medical could end up being more sane. It could be like California and other places where it’s more of a wink-wink medicinal.
But we generally have an idea about where Pheu Thai wants to take cannabis so everything beyond that will be something that people have to fight for and is far from a given.
I just wanted to point out that it’s not all rainbows and unicorns if we get Soft Medical. There is no guarantee of it being like California.
So anybody confidently saying that you’ll just need a medical marijuana card is just making stuff up that they hope will come true.
That’s not to say that it’s all doom and gloom either. We’re still a ways off from any of this actually happening and I see this more like armies positioning themselves than the end of the battle.
There are plenty of battles ahead for both the cannabis community as well as Thaksin, Srettha, and Pheu Thai to keep their holds on power.
In fact, the bombastic anti-cannabis rhetoric could all just be part of the plan for Pheu Thai in order to get a better price for allowing Soft Medical. Most people didn’t think they would ever reclassify it as a narcotic so now that they’re threatening to, they’ve turned cannabis into a much bigger bargaining chip.
As usual, we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out.
Stay lifted and enlightened,
Don’t forget that we’ve partnered with some dispensaries for exclusive deals available to members of this newsletter and the r/CannabisThailand sub on Reddit. Just type “Dank Deal” into the comments of any post and the AutoMod will send you the current discounts being offered.
Find us on: